DUE: 01.19.15 @12:00PM
Review the post below and the three Probability examples. Discuss which probability would be most accurate or more useful in terms of the example situations:
Theoretical Probability- Also called Classical Method or Logical Method
In my line of work of Event planning and banquets we use the theoretical probability to plan events. We have clients who will sometimes ask for outdoor events during the rainy season. I use the weather forecast to see what the chances of having rain are and give the option of having the event indoors if the probability is high.
Relative Frequency Probability
My daughter if graduating high from high school this May. We have been looking for colleges for out of state. While looking for the right college, my main concern is the crime rate. So we have used the process of elimination on her list based on the statistics from the Census Bureau on the crime rate.
Subjective Probability – Set by educated guess.
The example that I would like to give for subjective Probability was recently when my daughter gave birth. My co-workers came together and decided to put down what they thought the baby would weigh. What was interesting was everyone put their guess based on their own experience. Woman who had children thought that they would be very close but funny enough the bet was one by a male co worker who just made a wild guess. One of my friends said she took into consideration that the baby was two weeks early.
Review the post below. Comment on which probability you consider most be helpful in your current or future professional role. Why? Advance the conversation.
Relative frequency is how frequently an event happens divided by the possible times it would happen. My real life example would be how many times I work out weekly which is 3 versus the 7 days in a week that I could actually workout. 3/7 = 0.42857 = 43% of the time I workout.
Theoretical probability is how many times something can happen divided by the total number of known outcomes. I typically like to drink hot tea in the morning on the days I work. Depending on if I wake up late or if my morning gets thrown out of whack by my daughter in the morning, I may or may not have time to actually make me a cup. Typically I drink a cup of hot tea 4 times in a 5 day work week. I don’t drink tea on weekends as I am more inclined to make an actual meal for me and my daughter and drink another type of beverage because I have more time on my hands. So there is theoretical probability that I drink tea 4 out of 5 times a week = or 80% of the time.
Working at a credit card company, it has been my experience that on Friday’s most customers call to make payments. That is the most common call that I take on Friday’s which dictates why by call handle time tends to be the lowest on this day of week. I have been with the company going into my third year and this is based on my personal experience which dictates subjective probability.
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*Homework Field of Study: Business Statistics
If you don’t have any expertise in this area of study please don’t waste my time sending a handshake.